According to the OECD estimates, the global economy is on course to quadruple by 2060. It will be accompanied by the increase in global population, demand for producing goods and services, consequently the demand in primer materials. A preview of the OECD’s The Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060released this week sees global materials use rising to 167 Gigatonnes in 2060 from 90 Gigatonnes today as the world population soars to 10 billion people and average global income per capita rises to converge with the current OECD level of USD 40,000. Such an increase in materials extraction, processing and waste, is likely to increase the pressure on the resource bases of global economy and hinder the progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Accord, SDGs and targets, particularly, SDG 8.4. on decoupling of materials use and environmental degradation from GDP growth.
Materials use contributes heavily to climate change A large share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is directly or indirectly linked to materials management. These come from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, from agriculture, from manufacturing, and from construction. The extraction and burning of fossil fuels and the production of iron, steel and building materials are already major contributors to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. In the absence of new emissions-cutting policies, the report says overall emissions from materials management will grow from 28 to 50 Gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent by 2060.
The increase comes despite a shift from manufacturing to service industries and continual improvements in manufacturing efficiency. The projection also takes account of flattening demand in China and other emerging economies as their infrastructure booms end.
Without concrete policies and actions to address these challenges, this projected increase will likely significantly contribute to climate change. According to the OECD, there is no one-size-approach. Policy priorities, “should be determined by considering the links between the use of a specific material and its economic drivers, as well as its impacts on the environment and the criticality of its supply. The opportunities for substituting secondary for primary materials are also important in determining policy responses(…) A granular approach is needed to understand which policy interventions may improve resource efficiency at the sectoral level, and how major environmental consequences can be avoided”.
