The World Economic Forumhas estimated a $1 trillion economic potential in the Arctic. Melting ice offers an opportunity for Arctic states to develop and use new shipping routes of commercial and military strategic importance, access economic resources and explore significant natural reserves of oil and gas. According to the scientific estimates, they comprise30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 15 percent of the world’s untapped oil. Emerging technologies accelerate the pace of economic exploration and economic competition for leadership in the region. Some studies project the emergence of the geopolitical tensions in the Region, first, between the Arctic states, if Arctic nations make claims on disputed resources.
Global warming is changing the balance of interests, raises new risks and geopolitical issues, that requires new approaches in law, policy and governance.
Irrespectively to whether this risk of the geopolitical tension, resulting from claims over the natural resources becomes real or not, environmental challenges, caused by Climate Change and increasing intensity of economic activities, intensity of maritime transportation and risk of the maritime incidents and oil spillovers, increasing competition for maritime leadership between Arctic nations and China, that is increasing its presence in the Region and strongly stands on the principle of freedom of navigation, today call for revisiting and enhancing governance frameworks in the Arctic Region for protecting its unique eco – and – human systems.
The Recent IPCC Report expressed high scientific confidence that the global warming above 1.5 degrees will produce high adverse complex impacts both on the unique ecological and human system of the Arctic and the global level of the GHG emissions, due to the rise in emissions of organic carbon and CH4 or methane. This organic carbon and methane emissions can significantly reduce the carbon budget available for consumption from anthropogenic sources. This process is a natural mechanism that started in the result of the thawing permafrost and will continue to release large stores of methane into the atmosphere. (World Economic Forum, 2018) UN Environment Programme (ENEP) also warns in its recent report that what happens in the Arctic, doesn’t stay in the Region.
As for the sustainability of economic activities, international sea transport in the Region, UNCLOS and the Arctic Council provide some degree of governance to the region, offer some procedural grounds for handling emerging security and safety incidents, scientific cooperation and coordination.
The Arctic Council isthe leading intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation, coordination, and interaction among the Arctic States, Arctic indigenous communities and other Arctic inhabitants on common Arctic issues, in particular on issues of sustainable development and environmental protection in the Arctic. It has been used as a platform for negotiating and concluding binding agreements on the Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement, the Arctic Marine Oil Pollution Agreement, and the Arctic Science Cooperation Agreement. Two other agreements—the Polar (Shipping) Code and the Arctic Fisheries Agreement—involved additional states and were developed outside the Arctic Council process. The members of the Arctic Council are the Russian Federation, Canada, The United States, the Kingdom of Denmark,Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden(see The Ottawa Declaration). Consultation with indigenous people is realized through consultation and cooperation with the Aleut International Association, the Arctic Athabaskan Council, Gwich’in Council International, the Inuit Circumpolar Council, Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North and the Saami Council. Such organizations are permanent participants of the Arctic Council. Observer status in the Arctic Council is open to non-Arctic states, along with inter-governmental, inter-parliamentary, global, regional and non-governmental organizations that the Council determines can contribute to its work. Arctic Council Observers primarily contribute through their engagement in the Council at the level of Working Groups.
Overall, Arctic states value the cooperation developed in the last decades, its benefits to all by maintaining a peaceful and predictable environment that is attractive to investors and protects indigenous communities. In 2018, acknowledged International academics nominated Arctic Council for Nobel Peace Prize for the effective regional cooperation, that provides a “model for promoting fraternity between nations.”
At the same time, the prospective economic rents inform and heat up the talks with respect to the future of the Arctic Region. Out of all the Arctic states, Russia has an outsized Arctic presence, in both coastline and population, and currently shows its firm determination to benefit from its geographical location. The increasing multilayered pressures and changing global environmental context call for enhancing the governance in the Arctic and the reform of the Arctic Council. The Arctic Institutesuggested the following improvements: (i) increasing the funding of the projects, including for indigenous people; (ii) increasing accountability of the Arctic Council before the different stakeholders (its a voluntary commitment at the moment); (iii) improving the qualitative and the quantitative measurement of the deliverables of the Working groups, including the Sustainable Development Working Group; (iv) developing the concept of the economic development in the region. The Arctic Institute underscores, that with respect to economic development, “the very topic was relatively tabooin regional politics until recent years, as it was synonymous in the Arctic with resource exploitation. Efforts to promote economic development have been mostly relegated to the Arctic Economic Council(AEC), an independent organization of business representatives facilitatedby the Arctic Council in 2014. The AEC has limited capacity and its relationship with the Arctic Council—participation, reporting, support, etc.—remains ambiguous.”
In May 2017, the Arctic Council Ministers “recognize[d] the increasing need for regional cooperation to promote the conservation and sustainable use of the Arctic marine environment” and gave the task force a new mandate: to present “terms of reference for a possible new subsidiary body, and recommendations for complementary enhancements to existing Arctic Council mechanisms, for consideration by Ministers in 2019.”
The environmental, economic and social governance in the Arctic Region requires new approaches that would preserve the achievements in cooperation made in these years and would factor in new needs and challenges. Please, feel welcome to develop the discussion on the topic in your class of International Law.
